How to analyze resort snow reports

[marzNC]

Happy to report that Zach of OpenSnow started experimenting with the Wet Bulb graph for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow. He also has posted about the openings in NC this week. Don't remember that happening before. He has a lot of territory to cover given that there are ski resorts from NC to NY that are considered part of his region.

Normally "mid-Atlantic" is of most interest to folks who live DC/NoVA, Pittsburgh, or Philadelphia and includes northern WV, PA, NJ, and the Catskills. The folks in upstate NY and western NY don't think of that as part of the Mid-A. Skiing in the southeast is mostly in NC, TN, VA, but people make the drive to WV as well. Those are the states that have been covered by SkiSoutheast for a few decades.

From OpenSnow Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow on Nov. 29:

 

[marzNC]

I realize relatively few Divas will ever ski in the southeast, but here's an example of having a local weather source that is unmatched by any national/international source about weather related to snowsports. Brad Panovich is a TV chief metereologist in Charlotte, NC. He's a skier and SkiSoutheast hooked up with him quite a few years ago. That connection evolved into a weekly video forecast with a focus on snowmaking and natural snow in NC, WV, and VA.

December 2, 2023 (Charlotte, NC)

 

[marzNC]

If you have a bucket list destination in mind, could be worth hunting around for info a year or two in advance. Especially if you are limited by school holidays or work on when a trip could be scheduled.

For example, Lake Louise and Banff has come up as an early and late season destination. My family took a trip there during the summer when I was in middle school, but I haven't skied outside the USA , . . yet. Looking around I found this blog article about LL in December. It's from a travel website, but the info about weather and snow is pretty generic and a good start for thinking about the idea of flying to Calgary.

About December 2023

Visiting Banff in December? Here's All You NEED to Know

Banff in December is one of the best times of the year to visit the Canadian Rockies. If you are into winter, snow, and hot chocolate, that is. Banff in

thebanffblog.com

 

[Eera]

I basically look at every snow report going and choose to believe the best one.

We are locked into visiting a specific resort at a fixed time with zero flexibility so I'm going to live in a state of total optimism and / or denial about conditions.

 

[PollySid]

The guy who does the writeups for your area is Alan Smith. He's great. Locally he writes for a site called Buckrail:

Buckrail Meteorologist Alan Smith, Author at Buckrail - Jackson Hole, news

buckrail.com

Jackson Hole Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnow

The Jackson Hole Daily Snow provides the best snow forecast, written by a local Jackson Hole forecaster. Find snow conditions at ski resorts in Jackson Hole.

opensnow.com

But yeah, for the forecasts we don't "rely" on anyone, per se. We run the same weather models that everyone else does, then layer in some proprietary changes that make things more accurate for mountainous regions and snowfall in general.

p.s. I work at OpenSnow! Weather is weather, and it's never gonna be perfect, but I can say with no reservations that all the meteorologists care deeply about being as accurate as they can, and are constantly talking and iterating to make the forecasts better. It's honestly the most caring and disciplined group of people I've ever worked with. It's been really eye opening to watch them all obsess about weather all day every day in Slack.

p.p.s. Sorry to hijack a very good thread with OpenSnow chatter!

THANK YOU for the buckrail link. I can see this will be a go-to. Is anyone interested in the early March ‘24 women’s camp at Jackson? I’m signed up.

 

[snoWYmonkey]

@PollySid the buckrail one is new to me and and thrilled to have it added to my list.

Here is another great local link by a 30 plus year local forecaster. Mountain weather . I love the snow forecast chart.

In addition the NWS issues this specific mountain snow forecast. Snow forecast NWS. Good for how to dress the day of.

For the most in depth our local avalanche site has 5 weather stations at the resort your can get the current data from, but it takes a bit sleuthing on the site. I check the 24 hr report every morning in addition to current weather stations. BTNF avalanche weather site

Let me know if you want to meet up for apres when you're at the camp. I have not coached that one in a few years but it is blast!

 

[Nedgirl]

Also, almost all resorts in Colorado have a Snow Stake Cam. While they do tend to position them in favorable places, the camera tells you a lot about actual snow falling vs. a forecast. Forecasts are just forecasts, it may or may not happen. Full confession, my husband works for National Weather Service in Boulder, Colorado.

 

[snoWYmonkey]

@Nedgirl Grateful for forecasters. They have a tough job. If they fail to report a potentially hazardous storm they get the blame. If the do and it does not materialize they also get chastised. Not sure why people think forecasts are guaranteed. I am actually super impressed by how close they often are, down to mph and inches of precip and likely times.

 

[Nedgirl]

Just realized that the snow stake camera must be a western US thing. I'm guessing because there is not much natural snowfall in the east or midwest, it's not a thing. I'm guessing it could actually work to the negative that it shows no snow fallen most of the time. I'm pretty sure every resort in Colorado has a snow stake camera.

 

[marzNC]

Just realized that the snow stake camera must be a western US thing. I'm guessing because there is not much natural snowfall in the east or midwest, it's not a thing. I'm guessing it could actually work to the negative that it shows no snow fallen most of the time. I'm pretty sure every resort in Colorado has a snow stake camera.

There are snow stakes in other regions as well, but relatively few. There are plenty of snowstorms in the northeast. The difference from the west is that there are also storms during the winter that end up freezing rain instead of snow.

In the southeast and mid-Atlantic people are mostly looking at webcams to see if the snowguns are on. :-)

 

[Nedgirl]

There are snow stakes in other regions as well, but relatively few. There are plenty of snowstorms in the northeast. The difference from the west is that there are also storms during the winter that end up freezing rain instead of snow.

In the southeast and mid-Atlantic people are mostly looking at webcams to see if the snowguns are on. :-)

I wasn't referring to snow stakes, but rather snow stake webcams, which pretty much every resort in Colorado has. When I checked ski resorts in New England and midwest, none had webcams with snow stake cameras. FYI, I learned to ski and skied for several years in both Pennsylvania and Vermont. I know they do get snow, but not on the order of what Colorado, Utah, and Pacific west get. My home resort of Winter Park averages around 360 inches per season.

 

[marzNC]

I wasn't referring to snow stakes, but rather snow stake webcams, which pretty much every resort in Colorado has. When I checked ski resorts in New England and midwest, none had webcams with snow stake cameras. FYI, I learned to ski and skied for several years in both Pennsylvania and Vermont. I know they do get snow, but not on the order of what Colorado, Utah, and Pacific west get. My home resort of Winter Park averages around 360 inches per season.

I understood you were talking about a webcam pointed at a snowstake. When I checked the webcams linked on OpenSnow, I saw a few for the northeast.

I'm headed to the midwest for the first time later this season. Starting to pay attention to how conditions are reported. Similar to the southeast in that snowmaking is emphasized more than natural snowfall.

What I find quite different in the east compared to the Rockies is that there is far more days when rain happens during the ski season. I remember it happening in around SLC for someone from DC who used to do multiple long weekends, mostly for backcountry skiing. But that's pretty rare.