Early Prediction for '15/'16 Winter

[ski diva]

Things might be looking up for California next winter. From Unofficial Networks:

Climate scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) announced today that El Nino is growing stronger and could bring much needed snow to California this winter. They are so confident with their prediction that they are saying that El Nino is close to 100 percent, with simulations suggesting it could exceed the historic 1997-1998 season.

However, IRI scientists said global warming has made it difficult to predict an El Nino event. Last spring, models predicted similar El Niño drought-busting conditions. California went on to see the driest January in 40 years last winter.

“The difference is that this year an El Nino is already in place, with both ocean and atmosphere participating in the coupled climate phenomenon,” said IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston.

If the conditions continue on this trend, then California and most of the Northern Hemisphere would be in for a very deep winter.

Fingers crossed!

 

[WaterGirl]

I think everyone is afraid to reply..... lol
We did have a "California El Nino" still some storms passing thru

 

[Skisailor]

Things might be looking up for California next winter. From Unofficial Networks:



Fingers crossed!

Fingers crossed?!

Actually, I think this bad news for most of us, since El Niño usually means more snow across the southern US and less across the northern tier.

It's a mixed bag for sure. But it mainly helps the more southern ski areas in New Mexico and southern Colorado while warmer and drier conditions exist in northern CO, Utah, Idaho and Montana.

Not sure how California and the PNW fare.

In the east, NC and WVA skiers can make out but it's not usually very good for the mid Atlantic or New England.

Am I missing something?

 

[pinto]

https://bestsnow.net/ There's a tab part way down the left side that reads "Snowfall Effects of El Nino/La Nina" and it gives pretty good info, if not too much, and also links to charts that show how ski areas do in each condition.

 

[CarverJill]

Oh California and snow and skiing and water.......

 

[WaterGirl]

Some interesting occurrences ---

Red Tuna crabs appearing on So Cal beaches en mass (https://www.scpr.org/news/2015/06/16/52458/iseechange-pelagic-tuna-crabs-return-to-southern-c/) identified as being a harbinger of the 1982-83 El Nino..... see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleuroncodes_planipes (everyone I talk with agrees red tuna crab have appeared with a big El Nino).

In addition, according to Howard the Mammoth weather guy "the Madden Julian Oscillation is off the charts at the moment for July, this may be the only time of this intensity this time of the year since the early 1980s; which coincidently was one of the biggest El Ninos. 1982/9183."

 

[surfsnowgirl]

I really hope that our friends out west have an awesome winter.

As far as we go, lots of snow would be great also but I just love to just be on my skis going downhill. Powder is nice but I'll also take ice, crud or just plain old hard pack. As long as the ground is white I'll ski down it.

 

[VickiK]

I hope Howard, aka The Dweeb, is right!

 

[surfsnowgirl]

Maybe this is a sign. Mammoth got a dusting of snow last night.

https://www.facebook.com/DiscoverMammoth?fref=photo

 

[Fluffy Kitty]

It's not looking good for Oregon. The long-term forecast is similar to last season. We are also listed under "favored by La Niña."

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php

Still, California and the Southwest could use some water, of any temperature, so I'm glad El Niño is here.

I got some warm-snow high-fluoro wax...

 

[sibhusky]

I'd like to point out that it's not looking good for Big Sky, either, and I know there is talk of the next Diva Week being there again...

 

[SheSki]

According to my admittedly cherry picked link, it may be good news for southwestern snowfall. Fingers and toes crossed while doing the snow dance. I even saved a snowball from last spring's hike-n-ski in the freezer hoping someone's crazy idea of appeasing the snow gods will help in some small way. We shall see after the winter solstice sacrifice. Superstitious behavior is perfectly reasonable for skiers in need of snow right?
https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2014/02/18/what-does-the-return-of-el-nino-mean-for-colorado/

 

[mustski]

@SheSki Yes, perfectly reasonable for snow starved divas!

 

[Fluffy Kitty]

@SheSki Yes, perfectly reasonable for snow starved divas!

I'll second that, and I'm agnostic!

 

[Moonrocket]

The skunk cabbage/ elk weed in Fraser is Huge! That's supposed to be a super good sign. There's also a ton of it!

 

[MissySki]

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/07/noaas-winter-weather-forecast-2016-strong-el-nino

 

[WaterGirl]

Seems Southern California is starting early with the rain, apparently this weekend Hurricane Dolores added "further to the already unprecedented mid-summer rainfall, which one National Weather Service meteorologist called "super historic." While Deloris was lacking in surf size (IMHO), she made up for it in rain fall, lightening and thunder.

 

[mustski]

^^^ And it was tropical rain! I loved it. I just hope it doesn't portend an unusually warm winter - El Nino is only great if the temps are cool enough.

 

[Jenny]

Is any of it falling where you need it to?

 

[mustski]

@Jenny - we need it everywhere, so yes. The main thing California needs is big snowy winter to build up that critical snowpack in the Sierras. Unfortunately, while El Ninos favor us greatly in SoCal, they don't have much effect in Central or Northern California.