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Coronavirus Risk Levels, by state and county

ski diva

Administrator
Staff member
#1
It requires you to click around to get used to, but this Harvard site is really helpful in terms of visualizing covid risk levels state to state, county to county. For example, Vermont, where I live, has a 1.1 risk level (daily cases per 100K people, 7 day rolling average). My county has had 61 cases and 2 deaths, or 0.8 cases per 100,000 people. (Obviously, this is based on confirmed cases.) You can use it to look up what's going on anywhere in the US, along with its risk factor.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
#4
Another good source for numbers for every state is being updated daily by the NY Times. Shouldn't require a subscription. It's interactive and see not only the trends for total cases/deaths, but also cases per capita. That's a better way to compare across states that have very different populations. Below is are a couple examples of the data displays available.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

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marzNC

Angel Diva
#5
To get a sense of how much COVID-19 is spreading in a given state, or if it's actually spreading less than a week or a month ago, check out rt.live. Rt is also known as Reff, as in the Effective Reproduction Number. If Reff is greater than 1.0, then each infected person is generally infecting more than one other person so community spread increases. If Reff can be kept below 1.0, then the number of people infected eventually decreases to manageable numbers.

Here's a comparison for all states of 3 months ago to 2 weeks ago. Also the graph for NC (my home state). The calculations are based on data from Covid Tracking. When looking at a particular state, there are also interactive data displays for positive tests and total tests per day. Unfortunately, few states were able to stay in the green zone (<1.0) in May and/or June. Maine and CT have done the best job since mid-May. Hopefully the stats for August will be much better than July.

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Jilly

Moderator
Staff member
#6
The province of Ontario had less than 100 new infections today. First time since March. There is one area of the province that will not go to stage 3 on Friday. This area is a farming area and had an influx of migrant workers. They brought the virus with them. Plus the living conditions that are supplied are similar to a logging work camp. Isolation?
 
#7
That site is really helpful, and quite clear! Plus, Wendy, our county is looking even better today.
 

mustski

Angel Diva
#8
The problem I have with extrapolating it to #/100,000 is that it isn't really a true picture of what is going on. Mono county, CA is at 40/100,000 while Las Vegas, NV is at 39/100,000. I feel that I am far less likely to come into contact with the virus in Mono county which is very sparsely populated than I would be in Las Vegas which is densely populated. I understand that towns like Mammoth have a lot of visitors that bring it in, but so does Vegas.
 
#9
The problem I have with extrapolating it to #/100,000 is that it isn't really a true picture of what is going on. Mono county, CA is at 40/100,000 while Las Vegas, NV is at 39/100,000. I feel that I am far less likely to come into contact with the virus in Mono county which is very sparsely populated than I would be in Las Vegas which is densely populated. I understand that towns like Mammoth have a lot of visitors that bring it in, but so does Vegas.
Yes! I've been looking for this statistic, but I don't even know what to call it or what the unit would be.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
#10
Sometimes looking at smaller jurisdictions can give a sense of what's going on better than only looking at numbers for a larger population or geographic area. The NY Times started tracking a number of cities back in April. The data are updated regularly. What's displayed is only the past two weeks. In general, fewer people over 65 are testing positive this summer. At least in comparison to March and April. So for regions where hospitals are not overwhelmed, a spike in the number of cases is not associated with a parallel spike in the number of deaths.

When I check Raleigh, NC, then I can see how it stacks up. For number of cases, it's #247 and for deaths it's #197. Washington DC is around 400 for both. Boston is near 500 for cases, but #252 for recent deaths.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html

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SallyCat

Moderator
Staff member
#11
I might wait to see the stats at the end of September before planning any travel. The opening of in-person schools could prove disastrous, as it did in Israel in May.
 
#12
I might wait to see the stats at the end of September before planning any travel. The opening of in-person schools could prove disastrous, as it did in Israel in May.
And, new research showing that children carry huge amounts of the virus, when they are infected, shows that we don't yet know enough to know what we are doing. :brick:
 
#16
from first and having the governor doing interviews with the Washington post to cases spiking. I liken this to kindergarten. Some are bad so we do not get cookies and milk. All of us pay and don’t get cookies and milk for a few people who didn’t want to follow the rules. Makes me entirely furious!
I agree with this completely! We are not far behind with the way numbers are trending here too. Really sick of selfish people partying it up.
 

ski diva

Administrator
Staff member
#17
Really sick of selfish people partying it up.
You and me both!

Look at this picture from a rally at Huset Speedway in Brandon, South Dakota, during the opening week of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Not a mask in sight. Soon all these bikers will be driving back home, stopping at thousands of spots all across America. Good grief.

We will never be through with this virus.

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#19
You and me both!

Look at this picture from a rally at Huset Speedway in Brandon, South Dakota, during the opening week of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Not a mask in sight. Soon all these bikers will be driving back home, stopping at thousands of spots all across America. Good grief.

We will never get through with this virus.

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Oh no, I don't like that at all.
 
#20
"But we do this every year! We never miss one!"

"It's all a hoax."

[self-censored political comment]

"It's just one day, for crying out loud."
 

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