So what's going to happen next season?

[marzNC]

I read this several days ago, an interview with Thredo’s GM: https://www.snowsbest.com/stuart-diver-season-thredbo/

I would not take anything that Thredbo does in Australia as an indication of what will happen in the U.S. For that matter what Thredbo chose to do is completely different from what Vail Resorts is going to do for their three resorts (Perisher, Hotham, Falls Creek) or Mt. Buller.

In the U.S. what will happen for Epic and Ikon resorts in VT may be quite different than PA or NC or CO or OR. Just as the approach taken to re-open by Mount Baldy, Mt. Bachelor, and A-Basin in May/June differed.

Ski Area Management (SAM) is sharing the experience of resorts that re-opened, as well as what resorts are doing for summer activities. The industry is working together as much as practical as they make decisions over the next few months.

 

[ski diva]

In the Summit Daily, CEO Rob Katz speaks: Vail resorts offers a preview of a socially distanced ski season.

 

[ski diva]

Omigod what a MESS at Thredbo.

Read this about their online lift pass sale meltdown. Hope this isn't an indicator of what's to come here.

 

[MissySki]

Omigod what a MESS at Thredbo.

Read this about their online lift pass sale meltdown. Hope this isn't an indicator of what's to come here.

Ugh this sounds horrible!!

 

[Ski Sine Fine]

The article alluded to unlimited skiing for Australian Epic pass holders after July 13 at Vail resorts ... Is Vail just counting on no capacity limits past July 13th? Or their mountains are so big any capacity limits are a non-issue? Or the number of pass holders isn’t that big? I don’t get how they can plan for no limits. Do they know something the Thredbo GM doesn’t?

 

[Jilly]

Sounds like A-B all over again....

 

[marzNC]

The article alluded to unlimited skiing for Australian Epic pass holders after July 13 at Vail resorts ... Is Vail just counting on no capacity limits past July 13th? Or their mountains are so big any capacity limits are a non-issue? Or the number of pass holders isn’t that big? I don’t get how they can plan for no limits. Do they know something the Thredbo GM doesn’t?

Hard to say at this point, however the stats of the VR resorts in Australia are very, very different than in the Rockies or the U.S. northeast, or the Mid-Atlantic. I've been paying attention to Australia for a few years and while there are similarities in terms of snow conditions to the northeast, there are also big differences in terms of market, how long people tend to go for a ski vacation, and what type of lodging is most popular.

For comparison. Note that I tend to round numbers.

• Perisher has 3000 acres and 47 lifts, scattered across 7 peaks, with max vertical of 1100 ft.
• Breck (CO near Denver) has about 3000 acres, with 34 lifts and 2900 vert.
• Sunday River (ME near Boston) has 870 acres across 8 peaks, with 15 lifts for 1760 ft vertical.
• Stowe (VT, drivable from NYC or Boston) has 500 acres on three peaks, with 12 lifts, and 2300 vertical.
• Whitetail (in PA near DC) has 109 acres, only 935 ft vertical, and 8 lifts.
• Thredbo has 1200 acres with max 2200 ft vertical and 14 lifts.

So Thredbo is very different from Perisher. Thredbo and Perisher aren't that far apart so they draw from the same market. Sydney is the closest major metropolitan area, with a population of 5 million. Reminds me of the CO situation geographically where lots of people make the drive from Denver/Colorado Springs for a ski week or ski vacation or even a day trip. Or perhaps Tahoe. However, there are quite a few large ski resorts within a half day drive of Denver or San Francisco. There is a ski town, Jindabyne, that's just outside the mountains and about a 30 min drive from Perisher or Thredbo. It's a 5-hour drive from Sydney to Jindabyne, so a bit longer than driving from Boston to Bethel in Maine to ski at Sunday River. From DC, the drive is comparable to driving to WV to ski but of course the ski areas/resorts in WV are much smaller.

Normally, Australians who are ski nuts plan to fly to Japan or N. America for ski trips in Jan-Feb, during the Australian summer. Families who can afford it can take trips that are 2-4 weeks long since the kids are on summer vacation. However, what will be possible for the 2020-21 northern hemisphere ski season in terms of plane travel for Australians isn't obvious yet. However, COVID-19 is almost completely under control in Australia. So that's one reason face masks aren't part of the requirements for skiing at VR resorts. It's really quite a different situation than N. America for a variety of reasons.

 

[marzNC]

In the Summit Daily, CEO Rob Katz speaks: Vail resorts offers a preview of a socially distanced ski season.

I bet the CEO of Alterra is glad it is not a publicly traded company. Katz didn't have much choice in having to make a public statement about the upcoming N. American season sooner rather than later. VR only bought Falls Creek and Hotham in time for the 2019 season, so there isn't a long history operating those two ski resorts in Australia. Perisher became the first VR resort in Australia in 2015, so they have a fair amount of experience with what works there.

" . . .​

He described that Vail Resorts continued to operate with all the slopes open during the recession more than a decade ago even as skier and snowboarder numbers dropped. Katz said a larger drop could occur in the upcoming ski season than during the earlier recession.​

​

“If you look back to like the ’08-’09 recession, we maintained full terrain, full resorts open, even though we had lower demand. Now it’s possible that with COVID we could see even lower demand. … But we think we can absolutely still be profitable once we get into the season,” Katz said.​

. . ."​

 

[marzNC]

Sounds like A-B all over again....

Not exactly. Thredbo apparently spent $50,000+ on software development after deciding to go to strictly day tickets, with discounts for season passholders (fully refunded). What didn't work so well was the season pass holder discount, at least for some people. Others were able to get to the correct calendars and buy lift tickets for a few consecutive days. Seemed to be people who got their refunds a while back, as opposed to those who hadn't received it yet. All days of the season were available at the start. The system did crash due to high volume, but those who checked back later were able to get in and take care of business not that long afterwards. Unlike A-Basin, the process was not completely scrapped for an alternative.

Per usual, Facebook is a good place to see official announcements in real time. The GM posted a video apology. He noted that there are probably three times as many people who would like to get lift tickets are there is availability during popular weeks. Apparently there were as many as 25,000 people trying to get to the online store at one point. I saw a queue of 10,000+ last night (ET).

At this point, tickets for June 26 thru July 19 are sold out. The season goes into September.

One feature of the process was the existence of an "online queue," which Thredbo calls "Virtual Waiting Room." Never seen that before although it's a standard software product. There are posts about the length of time of the wait in the queue in the Thredbo thread. The idea is that you get in the queue and then have to pay attention in order to see the email that gets sent as an alert that you can get into the e-store and pick out the dates for lift tickets.

 

[MissySki]

Virtual waiting rooms suck.. The only experience I’ve had with them are for a couple of concert ticket purchases last year (which are now cancelled this summer ..) and it was just hours of endless waiting. Then in one case it got to me in line and they were already sold out. It was horrible. This is not something I’d be wanting to participate in numerous times for skiing in a season..

 

[marzNC]

Virtual waiting rooms suck.. The only experience I’ve had with them are for a couple of concert ticket purchases last year (which are now cancelled this summer ..) and it was just hours of endless waiting. Then in one case it got to me in line and they were already sold out. It was horrible. This is not something I’d be wanting to participate in numerous times for skiing in a season.

Ah, that's what virtual waiting rooms were created for.

For Thredbo, my impression is that most of the people who got lift tickets in the last 24 hours are done. Meaning they aren't going to be checking back for more tickets. They will do the days they bought and that will be it for lift-served skiing at Thredbo. That's especially true for families who also have to plan for lodging. With a late start, the core season is essentially only about 8 weeks and tickets are sold out for the first three already.

Completely different situation from what Mount Baldy, Bachelor, and A-Basin did for a short re-opening during late, late season.

 

[jskis190]

I think the unlimited skiing after July 13th is because Australia expects to be in the next stage of their reopening. The numbers of new covid cases in Australia is already very low. One day this week it was only 12.

 

[marzNC]

The start of the Australian ski season has certainly provided relevant experience for both what seems to work and what's not a good idea when it comes to how people with season passes get "reservations" for lift tickets and/or how people buy day tickets. Thredbo is the example of what not to do. Perisher is owned by Vail Resorts and seems to have come up with a process that in working out reasonably well. I haven't paid attention to Hotham and Falls Creek, which are also owned by VR, but are smaller resorts.

There are two key differences between the Thredbo and VR approach. Thredbo opted to refund all season passes, and is only selling day tickets. Season passholders are supposed to have access to discounted rates. People who buy a certain number of tickets then get a lower rate for additional tickets. Secondly, Thredbo released all possible dates at the same time, going all the way into late season. Perisher announced their process after the Thredbo debacle. Perisher season passholders will still be able to use their passes without a reservation at some point in the season when enough terrain is open and capacity limits may be higher. Lift tickets were released in stages. Not only just limited to the first few weeks at the start, also started with multi-day tickets before single day tickets. There is an added complication for Perisher that involves a train that's called the Ski Tube. There is limited parking at the base of Perisher, so people are encouraged to buy tickets for the Ski Tube instead. That includes people staying on the mountain.

The Thredbo system crashed the first day tickets were released. It took several days to sort out the mess. Both passholders and non-passholders had major issues. The Perisher system was busy, but seemed to work as expected. At least that was the experience of regulars who are members of the big Australian ski forum.

For now, people with lift tickets to ski in Australia in the coming weeks are more focused on snowmaking and snow storms than what it takes to get a lift ticket.

 

[BackCountryGirl]

I hope you're right, @mustski. Depends on how people behave. Last holiday weekend wasn't encouraging, from what I saw.

Yes, we're all weary. But it's not going away. So ski resorts are going to have to really jump through some major modification hoops in order to make next season happen.

The biggest issue out here in Very Cold Land is how to manage the indoors. Separating people on chairlifts is not a big deal, although it will make for longer lines (but I doubt people will complain, under the circumstances). On days when it's cold, however - and those days are numerous in New England - providing warm-up places - and food - is going to be incredibly challenging. Social distancing will mean less available space overall. From what I've seen of lodge crowding on busy days, MUCH less available space.

Those who stay at the resorts would have the option to return to wherever they are staying. The day trippers or off-property guests, not so much.

I personally envision that if I were to ski on a very cold day and get cold, I might just pack up and go home. I ordinarily boot up indoors. I might switch that to my vehicle, which is never a great joy when it's 5 degrees.

Who knows - anything can happen. Let's just all behave - and hope for the best.

What about ski school and the competition center? I shudder to think how all that could be handled safely!

 

[BackCountryGirl]

Today on social media, someone asked on the New England Pass page whether there will be capacity restrictions/reservations required/lotteries for passholders next season. This is at the forefront of people’s minds who buy the pass for Sunday River/Loon/Sugarloaf because the passes are being taken off sale this coming Monday and it is not definitive that they will go back on sale in the future or not. They are supposedly definitely not selling them the rest of the summer, and will then reassess in the fall. The response was that passholders will not be limited, and that each passholder will be guaranteed access for at least 150 days which is what their operating gaurantee is for next season. If they are not open for at least 150 days then we will get refunds or credits based on how many days under they are.

This sounds like good news so far, or better than I was thinking anyway. Fingers crossed! I bought my pass already as I can decide until December 10th whether to roll it over or not, and I don’t want to miss out if they don’t put them back on sale.

This is really going to be interesting; so many families are in the habit of pulling the plug to buy passes at the last minute and buy the seasonal products at that time, too. I am thinking that this is a sign that, like in the Southern Hemisphere, we may be looking at private lessons, only. In other words, if they limit access to people who have bought before 6/15, then the seasonal programs will be limited to those people, too. IInterestingly, my daughter and her friends got in touch with management to find out if they'd have the chance to buy passes if they don't get to work. They were told that the resort would open pass sales to former Team Members if they don't hire them.

Can't imagine how you can cancel a competition program like the one I work in. My guess is we will have some age groups able to train, but no others. There have been some USSA seminars on this topic, but nobody is sure how to really make it work in practice.

 

[ski diva]

Well, this isn't good news for our Australian skiers. From Snowbrains.com:

Vail Resorts have decided to suspend operations at Mt Hotham and Falls Creek due to the COVID-19 outbreak in Melbourne. The closure in effect from Thursday 9, July is expected to last till at least 19 August, as a result of the stay at home directions for Melbournes metropolitan area. NSW border closure to Victoria has also contributed to the Vail’s decision.

Melbourne has gone into a second lockdown as a result of the second wave in COVID-19 numbers. The restrictions are stage 3 which means people are only allowed out for limited reasons and this does not include driving to regional mountain areas. All non-essential travel banned for Melbournians.

We recognize that this is incredibly disappointing news. We assure you that we did not make this decision lightly as we know our employees, guests and the communities where we operate have already endured so much hardship this year. However, we are focused first and foremost on health and safety, following local health guidelines, and doing our part to support efforts across Victoria to address the recent rise in coronavirus cases.

– Mt Hotham Skiing Company

While Mount Buller, another Victorian ski resort is still operating until at least July 12. Although an announcement is expected to be made Friday 10, July. This all comes as a huge blow to the industry and the surrounding areas. The Victorian operations for Vail had only just begun Monday 6, July, due to lack of snow.

 

[ilovepugs]

Well, this isn't good news for our Australian skiers. From Snowbrains.com:

Vail Resorts have decided to suspend operations at Mt Hotham and Falls Creek due to the COVID-19 outbreak in Melbourne. The closure in effect from Thursday 9, July is expected to last till at least 19 August, as a result of the stay at home directions for Melbournes metropolitan area. NSW border closure to Victoria has also contributed to the Vail’s decision.

Melbourne has gone into a second lockdown as a result of the second wave in COVID-19 numbers. The restrictions are stage 3 which means people are only allowed out for limited reasons and this does not include driving to regional mountain areas. All non-essential travel banned for Melbournians.

We recognize that this is incredibly disappointing news. We assure you that we did not make this decision lightly as we know our employees, guests and the communities where we operate have already endured so much hardship this year. However, we are focused first and foremost on health and safety, following local health guidelines, and doing our part to support efforts across Victoria to address the recent rise in coronavirus cases.

– Mt Hotham Skiing Company

While Mount Buller, another Victorian ski resort is still operating until at least July 12. Although an announcement is expected to be made Friday 10, July. This all comes as a huge blow to the industry and the surrounding areas. The Victorian operations for Vail had only just begun Monday 6, July, due to lack of snow.

A serious bummer.

I stopped in at Inner Bootworks (the in person boot store associated with Ski Essentials) a few weeks ago and the general consensus is that AT gear is flying off the shelves. The 2021 stuff is slowly starting to trickle in, but anyone who is counting on being able to skin this season would be wise not to delay buying gear until winter.

 

[MissySki]

A serious bummer.

I stopped in at Inner Bootworks (the in person boot store associated with Ski Essentials) a few weeks ago and the general consensus is that AT gear is flying off the shelves. The 2021 stuff is slowly starting to trickle in, but anyone who is counting on being able to skin this season would be wise not to delay buying gear until winter.

Were they doing boot work yet? I need to bring my AT boots in for a pressure point on each heel that gave me blisters when hiking last season. There’s a piece of the shell that seems to push right into the bone on both sides that I’m hoping can be stretched or molded. I haven’t called to see if the shop was functioning again yet since it’s in Boston, but wondering if others are. Definitely something I need to get done ahead of the season though.

 

[ski diva]

Well, this isn't good news for our Australian skiers. From Snowbrains.com:

Vail Resorts have decided to suspend operations at Mt Hotham and Falls Creek due to the COVID-19 outbreak in Melbourne. The closure in effect from Thursday 9, July is expected to last till at least 19 August, as a result of the stay at home directions for Melbournes metropolitan area. NSW border closure to Victoria has also contributed to the Vail’s decision.

Melbourne has gone into a second lockdown as a result of the second wave in COVID-19 numbers. The restrictions are stage 3 which means people are only allowed out for limited reasons and this does not include driving to regional mountain areas. All non-essential travel banned for Melbournians.

We recognize that this is incredibly disappointing news. We assure you that we did not make this decision lightly as we know our employees, guests and the communities where we operate have already endured so much hardship this year. However, we are focused first and foremost on health and safety, following local health guidelines, and doing our part to support efforts across Victoria to address the recent rise in coronavirus cases.

– Mt Hotham Skiing Company

While Mount Buller, another Victorian ski resort is still operating until at least July 12. Although an announcement is expected to be made Friday 10, July. This all comes as a huge blow to the industry and the surrounding areas. The Victorian operations for Vail had only just begun Monday 6, July, due to lack of snow.

To put this in perspective, it's worth noting that Australia's infection rate to date is less than 10,000 cases in a population of 25 million (approximately that of Texas or Florida). Their positivity rate on testing is so low that they must test 300 people for every positive result. On a per-capita basis, their infection rate since the start of the pandemic is just 1/6th that of Vermont, despite Australia having 5 cities with over 1 million people.* So I think they're a bit more serious about containment than we are in the US.

* Figures from Skiology Matt

 

[MissySki]

Well, I’m finally close to signing a lease for a seasonal rental for next season. Waiting on the final revision of the document to come through at the end of this week for me to approve. It’s been hard deciding whether to proceed on this with so much uncertainty. I was at least pleasantly surprised that everyone I’ve spoken to in my rental search was fully willing to include a “pandemic clause” in their leases to account for closures that could affect all or part of the season. So there’s that. I’ll also be on mountain which allows me to completely forego using lodges in any way including the restroom if things are dicey. I also wanted to avoid having to deal with parking lots if there are restrictions on capacity overall etc. I do still have concern over whether there will be lotteries or reservations required for passholders, but that’s just a big unknown in terms of what it would look like at any given mountain so I’m trying not to speculate too much on that part yet. Boyne has specifically said they are trying to avoid passholder restrictions, which is why they have taken passes off sale until they reassess where things stand in the fall. So fingers crossed..