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Why is everything so crowded if skiing is losing popularity?

Obrules15

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
I guess the next question in, have enough feeder hills in places like Michigan closed (or, have enough people stopped skiing) to account for the loss of 500k skier visits in 20 years?

And if that's right, it's a really different picture painted by the kind of quote in my first post. There's currently an 18 page thread going over at Pugski about how to grow the sport of skiing, where everyone is operating under the assumption that the sport is dying. Which, of course, seems crazy from the perspective of someone in Seattle or Denver or a lot of places in the West or NE.

Which also makes me think about the economies in places where skiing is booming, and where it isn't booming. There seems to be a logical tie there.

IMHO, things are very much a "Tale of Two Cities". Midwest and rural america are often unseen and uncounted (Presidential Election) and things are very different in those places. I would suggest that the visit losses come from the lower working class, who in Michigan could afford to ski locally but now cannot.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
Which also makes me think about the economies in places where skiing is booming, and where it isn't booming. There seems to be a logical tie there.
As with real estate, it's hard to make any sort of general statement about the ski industry without taking into account the location.

But even in the same region, when you look into details of individual ski areas that are struggling from a business standpoint. WV has five ski areas/resorts. Four are stable businesses. The fifth has been a question mark for long time supporters for a few years. It's a couple miles from another ski area so gets pretty much the same snowfall and temperatures. The metropolitan areas where many WV skiers/boarders drive from are DC/Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Raleigh, Atlanta.

I wonder how much plane fares from the flatlands (midwest, southeast, mid-Atlantic) have changed in 20 years. Are there more flights from the midwest or northeast to ski destinations? I know that's true for places like Big Sky or Aspen, but what about Reno, Tahoe, SLC, Denver? I don't remember what I paid to fly in the 1990s for the few ski trips I took.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
Found a table of skier visit counts by region on the NSAA website. There is a clear dip in the midwest, southeast, and northeast since 2013. For regions where total numbers are fairly consistent, assuming some ski areas closed since the 1990s that would be one factor for why the slopes are more crowded. At least on weekends and during holiday periods.

Screen Shot 2018-11-28 at 8.21.24 PM.png

I don't know of any region where people are complaining about lift lines midweek. Well, except on a powder day when locals come out of the woodwork for a few hours before heading to work.

Here is a summary of the NSAA report released in May 2018 about skier visits for 2017-18. Remember that for a given winter, snow conditions are the biggest factor. That's why it's important to consider trends over a longer period.

https://www.nsaa.org/press/press-releases/skier-visits-hit-533-million-in-2017-18/

Skier Visits Hit 53.3 Million in 2017-18
Friday, May 04, 2018

Preliminary Results from NSAA’s Kottke Survey Reflect Strong Start and Finish

MARCO ISLAND, Fla., May 4, 2018—The National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) announced today that US ski areas tallied an estimated 53.3 million skier and snowboarder visits during the 2017-18 season, down 2.8 percent from last season’s 54.8 million total. The annual skier visit count, an important industry metric, was released today at the NSAA Convention and Tradeshow being held this week in Marco Island, Fla.

This past season, ski areas in the Midwest experienced an impressive rebound, as skier visits grew by 17 percent in this region to 6.4 million visits. In addition, the Southeast region had a strong season, up 3.6 percent to 4.3 million visits from 2016-17. The Northeast region held steady at 11.8 million visits, less than 1 percent down from the previous season. The Rocky Mountain, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions were down slightly more, ranging between -5 and -14 percent.

Visitation was up more than 52 percent in October and November and up 18 percent in March, due to a strong start and finish to the season. Resorts in several states set records for skier visits, including Whitefish and Bridger Bowl in Montana; Stevens Pass in Washington; Jackson Hole in Wyoming; and Schweitzer Mountain in Idaho. Resorts were open an average of five additional days this season over the prior season—a testament to the investments in efficient snowmaking infrastructure and a commitment to providing an outstanding experience to guests. Thanks to abundant snowfall totals late in the year, two resorts in Michigan—Boyne Mountain and Mount Bohemia—have been competing since mid-April to see which can stay open the longest this season.

Notably, the share of visits that included a lesson at US ski areas increased this season, indicative of the growing appetite to learn to ski and snowboard. These activities provide terrific opportunities to get outside in the winter and spend time with family and friends.

“I am pleased that the 2017-18 season was right in line with our 40-season average, with Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest performing above the 40-year average,” said Kelly Pawlak, NSAA president and CEO. “Ending on a positive note with many spring records will help drive season pass sales.”

NSAA will release a final report of the Kottke End of Season Survey this summer. To order a copy of the report, visit NSAA online at www.nsaa.org.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
IMHO, things are very much a "Tale of Two Cities". Midwest and rural america are often unseen and uncounted (Presidential Election) and things are very different in those places. I would suggest that the visit losses come from the lower working class, who in Michigan could afford to ski locally but now cannot.
Do you think that is because season pass prices have increased or because a local ski hill closed and driving farther is not a viable option? For families on a tight budget, using hand-me-down gear is probably more common. So increasing costs of gear seems less of a factor. In Michigan, I would guess that everyone has clothing and outerwear for frigid temps any way.
 

Obrules15

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
Do you think that is because season pass prices have increased or because a local ski hill closed and driving farther is not a viable option? For families on a tight budget, using hand-me-down gear is probably more common. So increasing costs of gear seems less of a factor. In Michigan, I would guess that everyone has clothing and outerwear for frigid temps any way.
I would say it's more of a function of the state of the economy. Prior to the seventies working the line at Ford, Chrysler, or GM or one of their offshoots paid very, very, well. These days things are tight and getting tighter. When jobs leave places like that, they don't return to places like that despite the state of the general economy.
 

SallyCat

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
I don't know of any region where people are complaining about lift lines midweek. Well, except on a powder day when locals come out of the woodwork for a few hours before heading to work.

I wonder the impact that backcountry skiing has had on the reported numbers? I sat at my desk at the resort today and watched a fairly steady stream of skiers and boarders earn their turns (we're not yet open for the season). I know people who ski more vertical feet in a season than most of us here on the forum and they never ride a lift.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
For anyone who really wants to geek out on data, there is an annual report (about 200 pages) published in Europe that covers skiing worldwide. For a sense of what the report covers, check out Brave Ski Mom's blog article from 2016.

Skiing, By the Numbers

"Regionally, 35% of ski areas are in the Alps, followed by 21% in the Americas. Nineteen-percent are in Asia and the Pacific, while 13% are in Eastern Europe and 12% are in Western Europe."

The growth of skiing in China and by Chinese nationals in Japan or N. America is going to impact the U.S. ski industry in the coming years. Squaw/Alpine has been courting Chinese ski tourist for a few years. According to a 2018 article, there are already 700 ski areas in China. Essentially all built in the last decade. The Winter Olympics will be in China in 2022.

Why most of the 1.2 million skiers in China avoid local ski resorts and head for Japan instead
 

alison wong

Angel Diva
The growth of skiing in China and by Chinese nationals in Japan or N. America is going to impact the U.S. ski industry in the coming years. Squaw/Alpine has been courting Chinese ski tourist for a few years. According to a 2018 article, there are already 700 ski areas in China. Essentially all built in the last decade. The Winter Olympics will be in China in 2022.

Why most of the 1.2 million skiers in China avoid local ski resorts and head for Japan instead

Thanks for sharing the article. Interesting read from the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong based English newspaper.

There is plenty of Chinese signage in Whistler (e.g. gondola station), Aspen/Snowmass website has content in Chinese language (simplified Chinese - assume it's catered toward Mainland Chinese, not Taiwanese).

But it is true that Chinese prefers Japan over western countries. I suspect the main reason is language barrier. At least there is some resemblance b/w Japanese (Kanji) and Chinese, you can guess the meaning, whereas english is totally foreign to many. Also air fares b/w China and Japan are cheaper, flights are shorter in distance as compare to Europe or N.America.

Skiing in Korea is a 2nd (tier) choice because not much natural snow, mostly man-made.

In fact, my Chinese friend from Beijing, she will be embarked on her 2nd ski trip to Japan again in Jan. 2019.....
 

RachelV

Administrator
Staff member
Interesting related article in Outisde: "The Giant Resort Companies You Hate Are Saving Skiing":
https://www.outsideonline.com/2367016/keep-skiing-weird


This article says that resorts owned by Vail Resorts and Alterra are responsible for 35% of all skier visits. Definitely helps explain why resorts on group passes are getting more and more crowded while skier visits overall are flat.
 
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Christy

Angel Diva
That does help explain why many ski areas have gotten so crowded. And then when you factor in the crowds at ski areas near fast growing western cities, even if they're not on one of these big passes, that's another factor.

It's a different narrative than the one we've been hearing. Skiing isn't dying. A lot of places are booming. Even places I wouldn't expect – – one of those articles linked above talked about how visits at Schweitzer have jumped, and Schweitzer is only on the Powder Alliance and not near any big population centers. Maybe I'm not giving enough credit to the PA. I never hear anyone talk about it but maybe a lot of people do use it.

Another interesting thing about that article: One thing I hear a lot is that skiing is dying because no one can afford to do it anymore. That article is basically arguing the opposite.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
Another interesting thing about that article: One thing I hear a lot is that skiing is dying because no one can afford to do it anymore. That article is basically arguing the opposite.
This is a good discussion.

People who complain about rising day ticket prices probably have a point for a given situation. But sometimes they are also the same people who complain about old lifts or crowded lodges.

In terms of people saying that skiing is dying, are you thinking about media reports? Online ski forums? Personal conversations? Regardless of the content or topic, I always consider the source. For instance I don't assume a clinical trial for a new treatment will apply to me until I know the characteristics of the patient population (gender, age, etc.) that was studied.

There was major concern around 2010 that the snowsports industry would not be able to recover from the 2008 recession. The increasing need to invest in snowmaking infrastructure didn't help. Did seem that families with children and young adults seemed to be moving to other outdoor activities. For example, my sense is that indoor rock climbing is a relatively new activity that's good for all ages, easier to reach for most people in metropolitan areas, not weather dependent, and requires less initial investment in gear and/or "tickets." If my daughter hadn't liked skiing, that's probably the activity we would've done more. Can match up well for people who also are interested in outdoor climbing in warm months or mountain biking. I know that's a booming business in the Boston area. My daughter can squeeze in a Friday evening rock climbing session with friends a lot easier than she can get to a ski slope as a busy high school senior. The Raleigh-Durham area has gone from one small commercial climbing gym to four major gyms that are always busy. For that matter, the biggest rock climbing gym I've seen is in SLC.

There were changes made at some ski areas/resorts in recent to encourage people to give skiing or snowboarding a try. Snow Operating because a successful consulting company helping large and small ski businesses think differently and do better in the long run. Their analyses is one reason more places are trying to get never-evers to sign up for at least three lessons. One lesson is really not enough. Was that done before? Yes. The Taos Ski Week being a prime example. But it was an exception, not common practice. Any major change in thinking takes a few years to have a noticeable impact. As far as I know, all the ski resorts that worked with Snow Operating are doing fine, and many of them have seen growth in the last five years. Certainly true of Snowshoe in WV and Cataloochee in NC.
 

Christy

Angel Diva
n terms of people saying that skiing is dying, are you thinking about media reports? Online ski forums? Personal conversations?

All of the above. I mentioned the NYT quote in my original post; that must be the upteenth time I've read something like that. And I mentioned the 18 page Pugski thread where everyone is operating under this assumption. That started when someone posted an article from the Summit Daily about how the sport needs to attract more skiers.

People who complain about rising day ticket prices probably have a point for a given situation.

To be clear, I personally think skiing is expensive, even with the passes, so I don't begrudge anyone this point. But that's been the big factor in all of the articles I always read about how skiing is losing popularity, and the Outside Magazine credits the new, lower cost passes with a resurgence.
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
My impression after being involved in ski forums for about 15 years is that people who post regularly on online forums do not represent most people who are riding ski lifts. When I mention a ski forum when I'm feeling social and skiing solo, the reaction I usually get makes it clear the person I'm talking with has no clue that online ski forums exist.

To be clear, I personally think skiing is expensive, even with the passes, so I don't begrudge anyone this point. But that's been the big factor in all of the articles I always read about how skiing is losing popularity, and the Outside Magazine credits the new, lower cost passes with a resurgence.
Yep, skiing is an expensive hobby. In the same category as golf or horseback riding in my view. A lot less expensive to get kids into recreational tennis or a local recreational soccer league. At least in the southeast where can play outdoors well into November or even during the winter. But there are still regions in N. America where families can have fun on the slopes without dealing with the higher costs and crowds of destination resorts. Skiing in Europe is a completely different scenario for lots of reasons.

Rob Katz came up with the Epic pass idea in 2008. It's pretty well accepted in business circles that made a huge difference to Vail Resorts. Katz became VR CEO in 2006. I learned a lot about the history of VR from an article earlier this year comparing VR and Alterra.

https://www.aspensojo.com/articles/2018/2/15/let-the-winter-games-begin

I stayed at a family-owned motel near Stowe the season before Stowe was on the Epic pass as part of VR. The owner was quite excited that the season passes for his family would be substantially lower and would allow him to do a trip out west during late season without paying for lift tickets. I think the price of an adult season pass went from about $2000 to around $800.

Of course, that price drop for Stowe season passes caused neighboring independent resorts like Smuggs and Sugarbush to worry a bit. Sugarbush joined MCP and then Ikon. Smuggs has gone to RFID, day tickets are $79. Is getting free advertising from being Best of the East in the SKI Magazine survey for 2019. Smuggs continues to focus on being family friendly. Seems to be working even with no lift upgrades. Hear complaints about Stowe traffic jams, parking, and lift lines. Don't really hear that much about Smuggs but I don't think that means they are in danger of going out of business.
 

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