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Snow’s-a-Comin’!!!!

kiki

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#5
We finally have snow here too in the PNW-vancouver:WB but now the roads are too bad to get to the ski hills lol! :doh:
 

marzNC

Angel Diva
#6
A few ski areas in the southeast had to close Mon-Thu this week. Down to grass on too many trails that were open for the holidays. But snowmaking temps return on Thu night. Just in time for MLK weekend.

Might even see snow when I'm at Massanutten with my friend and her kids this weekend!
 

liquidfeet

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#7
This in the Thursday storm from Skiology Matt at https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=northeast skiology group&epa=SEARCH_BOX
This guy is my go-to for ski weather in New England.

THURSDAY STORM UPDATE #2: On Track, Significant Back-End Event, Some Wind Issues
Dear N-VT, you're getting a foot by Friday morning. Surprise! This sleeper storm will start impacting our focus area around 12 a.m. Thursday and the front end should clear ME by about close the same day, but back-end and lake effect snow will have enough wind and moisture to add substantially to the totals in the northern areas and along the lakes. Winds may be an issue in S-NY Thursday, and on Friday parts of N-NH and N-ME may be problematic for the first half of the day.

Attached is the latest NWS snowfall map through 7 a.m. Friday, and it includes small totals from tonight's light system. Also the ECMWF 1 hour precipitation intensity loop from 4 p.m. Wednesday through Thursday is attached. Although this is in range of the NAM3K, it is not tracking correctly and it won't be shared until it does (only trust NAM3K with the correct track).

Rain/Snow Line: S-NY and MA will likely all flip from snow to light rain and maybe back to snow, but there isn't a lot of moisture south of the low pressure center which tracks mostly west to east near Killington. Snow looks more promising further south in S-NH with places like Gunstock and possibly even Sunapee staying all or mostly snow, with more confidence of Waterville and Ragged staying snow. Mount Snow could also flip to light rain or drizzle in the middle of the storm as they are borderline. Gore looks good in NY, but West is borderline for a changeover.

Front-End Snow: This will be heaviest north of the low, meaning primarily N-NY, N-VT, N-NH, but S-ME actually looks better than N-ME on the front-end. This snow all falls just before and during the ski day, and I would expect generally 3"-6" during that time. Not quite a powder day, but this should ski well with some of the ice still needing resurfacing given the low traffic.

Back-End Snow: The wind will be primarily NNW and that favors bringing snow even south of Killington in small amounts, it also is a good direction for Burke. N-NH may benefit less in comparison due to the SE track of the storm off the coast not bringing wind at the most opportune time, but some back-end snow will happen at the favorite spots concentrated on places like Cannon, Bretton Woods, Loon, and WIldcat. N-ME looks as if their potential is low for measurable snow on the back-end, and the 6" forecast amounts there are benefiting from the Wednesday morning light snow event. N-VT sidecountry and backcountry may be in play Friday morning, but the snow may taper off mostly by noon. There is definite potential for an over-perform based on the last model run. Lake effect looks quite healthy also and long-lived. All C-NY and W-NY resorts may benefit, some very nicely. I believe NWS Buffalo is currently low in their snow forecast.

Wind Issues: Thursday winds are indicating lift issues in the Catskills primarily, and Friday morning in N-NH and ME. I'll create maps.
 

liquidfeet

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#8
...and this from the same guy on the Sunday storm (two day old report):
ECMWF SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY
I've been holding back waiting for more confirmation fo the Sunday storm. While there's plenty of time for models to change, the model agreement is very high on this storm, and it's not a complex set of elements requiring perfect timing in order to make a connection so I'm pretty much sold. This looks to be like a good medium intensity storm with very widespread snow, and some amounts in excess of a foot. Paired with the Thursday system, and some light snow events up north, and you're talking widespread good to great conditions. This snowfall map includes everything, but the resolution is too low to show the upslope snow enhancement on the northern mountains, and it's too far out to precisely pinpoint the biggest winners, but there will be almost no one that doesn't get at least 6" between these storms, and plenty getting well over a foot if the models aren't smokin' crack.

Note that this weekend storm will be widely televised as it should hit populated areas with at least some snow, and snow lovers are feeling anxious. If you are a hunter that means hunting all conditions from the fresh pow, to the surface underneath it, to the amount of terrain, to the lift lines. You can have a blast even with 630' of vert as I proved last week when the conditions are prime.

That's not to say that those that have pre-booked a stay are wrong for doing so, hell no, not every ski vacation is about getting the most vert possible. If that still matters, just open your eyes to those tertiary lifts that no one is in line for and lap them from 10-2 and you'll probably have a great time, especially if you can wake the kids up in time for the first chair so that you can hit the faster lifts before the lines materialize. People will be sharing huge lift line photos on STE, and you don't want to be the guy or gal taking that shot because it means you'll be waiting also, you want to be the guy or gal on Skiology sharing the shot from the fixed-grip lift with zero line on a packed holiday weekend who got 10,000k of vert on the fast lifts before the crowds even showed up.
No photo description available.
 
#10
For the southeast (NC, VA, WV, TN), the go to website is SkiSoutheast. There is a TV meteorologist in Charlotte who is a skier. Brad Panovich does an annual ski trip out west in in the spring. He does weekly video forecasts. For this region, the focus is on snowmaking weather more than snowstorms. He hasn't been this excited for quite a while this season.

 

Randi M.

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#11
That's not to say that those that have pre-booked a stay are wrong for doing so, hell no, not every ski vacation is about getting the most vert possible. If that still matters, just open your eyes to those tertiary lifts that no one is in line for and lap them from 10-2 and you'll probably have a great time, especially if you can wake the kids up in time for the first chair so that you can hit the faster lifts before the lines materialize. People will be sharing huge lift line photos on STE, and you don't want to be the guy or gal taking that shot because it means you'll be waiting also, you want to be the guy or gal on Skiology sharing the shot from the fixed-grip lift with zero line on a packed holiday weekend who got 10,000k of vert on the fast lifts before the crowds even showed up.
No photo description available.
This is the best weather report I’ve ever read. It’s totally my ski strategy. Get to the mountain early, ski the main face and fast lifts before the crowds appear and then run laps on the out of the way fixed grips during the warmest, least icy part of the day. Those out of the way trails are often the most interesting, too.

Why is he telling everyone? I earned that strategy the hard way!
 

ski diva

Administrator
Staff member
#12
We had about 6 inches here in the Okemo area yesterday, and the skiing was sweeeeeeet. Amazing how it helped turn things around! Now they're calling for more this weekend. Maybe winter is bad on track?
 

liquidfeet

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#13
I was at Cannon yesterday. It started snowing around 3:00 am the previous night, after the grooming was done, and kept going all day long. The website says they got 8-10". I think that's accurate; it felt like it.

It was heavy snow, and the temps were just under 32 degrees. It was supposed to be a windy day with occasional snow showers. The forecast was wrong about the amount of snow and the wind didn't start until around lunch when it blew only at the top of the mountain. Surprise powder day!

What's odd is that there weren't that many people there. A very few were there with me for first tracks, and by 11:00 a few more showed up. There were absolutely no lift lines; I never had to wait to get on a chair. It was windy up top, so I skied the front five, Cannon's saving grace on windy days. The wind does not blow there. Maybe people skiing the summit had to wait a few chairs, but I chose not to freeze on that lift.

Every trail did get chopped up pretty fast, but not fully chopped due to the low crowds. The trails at 1:30 looked like merangue with high points. There were no real bumps forming where I was skiing. One could blow through the "lumps" of tall snow. Most of my runs had no one else on the trail when I was there. Great day.

I must admit my glutes are sore this morning. Have no idea what the unfamiliar movement was that caused that.
 

liquidfeet

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
#15
Was I doing butt-blasters somehow? Quads are fine. Back is fine. Rhomboids are sore, but that often happens. No idea about that either. It was heavy deepish snow, and I don't get a chance to ski it much. Feels good to have sore muscles, actually.
 

Jenny

Angel Diva
#16
We're supposed to get several inches of wet snow overnight, then rain for a bit tomorrow, then back into snow. but they also mentioned a bit of freezing rain so I think maybe they're not really sure where the front is going to be yet.
 

Jenny

Angel Diva
#18
This weekend - somewhere a little south to Bittersweet, which is the closest. Or we can go north to Cadillac (a couple of hours) and ski Caberfae or Crytal, or we can go further north near Petoskey (right around three hours or so) and ski Boyne or Nubs.

We're blacked out at Boyne, though, and since they'll all be charging holiday rates we're likely to stay close by if the weather is at all conducive to skiing.
 
#19
Northstar got 22 inches in the last 24 hours..... darn I was hoping to go on Tuesday but not looking likely.
 

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