Obsessing Over Long-Range Forecasts

[Randi M.]

It’s that time of year! Three weeks out from our first ski trip of the season and I’ve started to read open terrain and condition reports and long-range weather forecasts. I will not stop doing this or praying to the weather gods until I pack away my gear for the season. I just can’t help myself! Anyone else do this?

 

[Abbi]

Yes! If it helps, though, most of the sailboat racers in my crowd refer to the NWS types as 'weather guessers'!!

 

[Randi M.]

most of the sailboat racers in my crowd refer to the NWS types as 'weather guessers'!!

Totally. Weather is a very difficult thing to predict, especially beyond a couple of days. In some want that makes it worse! Will it snow? How much snow will there be? Nobody knows!

 

[QCskier]

Yes, I am always looking at the long range forecasts for Tremblant and if I see unfavourable weather conditions (ex. rain and above zero temperatures) I panic a little even if those conditions are far enough in the future that they might change.

 

[ski diva]

Don't obsess. I interviewed Joel Gratz, chief meteorologist for OpenSnow.com, in September, and here's what he said about how far out we can expect a reasonable weather forecast:

"About 7 to 10 days out we can tell if there might be a storm in the area. About 4 to 6 days out there is some confidence in the timing and strength of the storm. And around 1 to 3 days out is when the predictions for snow amounts usually become more trustworthy."

Here's the whole interview.

 

[Randi M.]

Don't obsess. I interviewed Joel Gratz, chief meteorologist for OpenSnow.com, in September, and here's what he said about how far out we can expect a reasonable weather forecast:

"About 7 to 10 days out we can tell if there might be a storm in the area. About 4 to 6 days out there is some confidence in the timing and strength of the storm. And around 1 to 3 days out is when the predictions for snow amounts usually become more trustworthy."

Here's the whole interview.

Rationally, I know this is true. Emotionally, skiing is my favorite activity in the whole wide world (which I somehow managed not to do for more years than I care to count) and I just. Cannot. Help. Myself.

 

[Christy]

My husband can't help himself either. He'll come home from work and say, excitedly, "did you see that it snowed X inches at Sun Valley?" Or, "I can't believe they haven't opened runs X and Y yet." DUDE. We won't be there for a month.