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La Nina for 16/17?

ski diva

Administrator
Staff member
Given the crappy season we've had here in the northeast, I can't help but get excited about any reports that say next winter will be better. So here it is: I just read on SnowBrains.com that there's a 75% chance for a strong La Nina developing over the summer. Which could mean a lot of snow for the US next year.

Here's snowfall totals from 2010/2011 La Nina year:

  • Alpine Meadows, CA = 852″
  • Squaw Valley, CA = 811″
  • Mt. Baker, WA = 808″
  • Alta, UT = 723″
  • Mammoth, CA = 668″
  • Mt. Bachelor, OR = 665″
  • Whistler, B.C. = 622″
  • Jackson Hole, WY = 557″
  • Jay Peak, VT = 376″

For the article, go here.
 

bounceswoosh

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
2010/11 was AMAZING at Breck. I remember rolling over and going back to sleep if they "only" reported 3" that season. And a buddy reminded me a few weeks ago that the dead tree above Joker went "missing" that season because only the top couple of inches stuck out anymore.
 
I will believe it when I see it but I am oh so hopeful.
 

Christy

Angel Diva
It was a La Niña year when Mount Baker broke the world record for snowfall. Here's what our local guy has to say about it. Long story short, buy your passes if you're in the PNW.

2015-16 Recap and Big Powder Potential for 2016-17

Next Season: La Nina and the promise of fabulous NW Snowfall - go deep and go big

There is great snowfall potential for the Pacific NW (WA, BC OR ID and MT) for next year. If a La Nina develops, as most of the models are predicting, there will be many awesome ski days ahead for next season. Already, the Climate Prediction Center is incorporating La Nina impacts into their forecast for next season. A La Nina Watch has been issued and it means mountains of snow are possible for the NW.

Many of the computer outlooks are pointing to a strong La Nina at this time, for next winter. In my opinion, a strong La Nina has the highest confidence of any long-range forecast for reliable and deep snow in the NW. It's almost bullet proof, but the reality is - there are no guarantees. La Nina also favors low snow levels too - quality and quantity!

This is only seasonal forecast I would bet on and I am all in. I already have passes for next year and planned time off. I am going part time at work and renting a snow cave from Sasquatch for the winter. All so I can be close to the powder. My life is finally coming together.

The most memorable La Nina for the NW was the record snow season of 1998-99. Mt Baker received the world record snowfall in 1998-99 with an incredible 1140" inches. That snowfall was driven by a strong La Nina pattern in the tropical Pacific. Next year won't be an exact repeat, but you should be ready when it really starts dumping. There is no way to tell how it will play out on a monthly basis. The 1998-99 season had a mediocre start, but the Cascades snow machine really got cranking by February 1999, with 6-12" of new almost everyday. Baker had to close down for a couple of days to dig out chairlifts from the unending snowfall.

If anything close to that happens - we'll be livin' the dream.

Have a great summer. See ya in the fall

Larry Schick
Meteorologist
The Grand Poobah of Powder












 

Christy

Angel Diva
I think 98-99 was also the winter we had something like 100 straight days with no sun. People went kind of crazy. But that might be just the thing nowadays-maybe a lot of newcomers won't be able to hack it, and will move to Austin or Denver.
 
I remember fondly the winter of 2010-2010 when feet of snow fell for storm after storm. I was working in NYC at the time and it was quite the adventure getting to my job in midtown with all the giant snow piles in the city that had nowhere to go. Mountains were kissed also but of course I had just eased out of snowboarding and was just getting into skiing so didn't go a whole lot so I didn't appreciate the winter like I should have...............
 

Jenny

Angel Diva
It was a La Niña year when Mount Baker broke the world record for snowfall. Here's what our local guy has to say about it. Long story short, buy your passes if you're in the PNW.

2015-16 Recap and Big Powder Potential for 2016-17

Next Season: La Nina and the promise of fabulous NW Snowfall - go deep and go big

There is great snowfall potential for the Pacific NW (WA, BC OR ID and MT) for next year. If a La Nina develops, as most of the models are predicting, there will be many awesome ski days ahead for next season. Already, the Climate Prediction Center is incorporating La Nina impacts into their forecast for next season. A La Nina Watch has been issued and it means mountains of snow are possible for the NW.

Many of the computer outlooks are pointing to a strong La Nina at this time, for next winter. In my opinion, a strong La Nina has the highest confidence of any long-range forecast for reliable and deep snow in the NW. It's almost bullet proof, but the reality is - there are no guarantees. La Nina also favors low snow levels too - quality and quantity!

This is only seasonal forecast I would bet on and I am all in. I already have passes for next year and planned time off. I am going part time at work and renting a snow cave from Sasquatch for the winter. All so I can be close to the powder. My life is finally coming together.

The most memorable La Nina for the NW was the record snow season of 1998-99. Mt Baker received the world record snowfall in 1998-99 with an incredible 1140" inches. That snowfall was driven by a strong La Nina pattern in the tropical Pacific. Next year won't be an exact repeat, but you should be ready when it really starts dumping. There is no way to tell how it will play out on a monthly basis. The 1998-99 season had a mediocre start, but the Cascades snow machine really got cranking by February 1999, with 6-12" of new almost everyday. Baker had to close down for a couple of days to dig out chairlifts from the unending snowfall.

If anything close to that happens - we'll be livin' the dream.

Have a great summer. See ya in the fall

Larry Schick
Meteorologist
The Grand Poobah of Powder
@Christy - Any feel for how La Niña affects Sun Valley? I still want to go there.
 

cornysnow

Certified Ski Diva
https://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/58...s-it-influence-snowfall-in-the-united-states-

"A medium to strong La Niña is almost a sure bet that the Pacific Northwest is going to have a great snow year, and this can extend north to parts of Canada and Alaska and into adjacent states like Montana and Wyoming. While there’s also a rather strong indication that La Niña years bring lower than average snowfall to the south, the hardest forecast to make is for areas that aren’t north or south but right in the middle, like Tahoe, Utah and Colorado. Many La Niña years treat these areas favorably with above average snow, but it’s not a sure bet. And some La Niñas can persist for two winters in a row, and often the second winter does not bring as much snow to this middle area as the first."

Fingers crossed for the Tahoe/the Sierras. Not just for the skiing, but for California's drought situation.
 

SallyCat

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
Man, I hope we have a LOT of school cancellations due to snow this year. My dang school scheduled next year's spring break for the second week in April, a month later than normal. So I hope Seniorita La Nina can help a sister out and keep some snow around through the spring. Otherwise, I may have to break the piggy bank and take a trip to A-Basin!
 
We didn't a single ah hem work from home day due to weather this past winter. We had a couple borderline days where they didn't have us all work from home but some people stayed home. However, I have a Wrangler with meaty snow tires so i felt guilty not going in cause there was no way I'd have trouble getting in. Even on marginal days when some stay home i need to work on my guilt. Just like the saying goes no friends on powder days. I have to say no guilt on snowy days cause mama's gotta ski.

Down the road I will never be thinking ya know i am really glad i went into work that snowy day. On the flip side I will however go ya know that was a great ski day, so worth not going to work.

Besides i call in sick to go skiing now and again so i can do the same when there is a little snow. We all have email access on our phones so i can answer an occasional email between runs right.
 
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Christy

Angel Diva
@Jenny Sun Valley isn't consider to be much affected by either La Nina or El Nino. (It's surrounded by higher mountains and so gets less than all the mountains in the area). There is some good info on Tony Crocker's site--his site web address doesn't change no matter what part of the page you're on, so google this for more info:
El Nino/La Nina Neutral Areas - Bestsnow.net

Most Northern Rockies areas are favored by La Nina, but there are a few microclimates that are less sensitive. Sun Valley and Sun Peaks have fairly dry climates that are blocked out of some prevailing weather patterns. It is well known that Sun Valley gets its biggest dumps from the south, and the record El Nino of 1983 was its second highest snow season.

***


He has a page about which resorts are strongly favored by La Nina, but you'd need to google Ski Areas Strongly Affected by La Nina Best Snow to find it.
 

Albertan ski girl

Angel Diva
@Christy - oooh! that bestsnow website is good - I just read through the La Nina page and there are 4 Alberta resorts on the "strongly favoured by La Nina" page. Sounds good to me!
 

Pequenita

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
I've mixed feelings. La Niña also means that central and Southern California receive below normal rainfall. Those areas did not even receive normal rainfall in what was supposed to be a wet El Niño season.
 

Pequenita

Ski Diva Extraordinaire
I should say precip, to be precise, not rainfall. One thing that I've learned since moving out here is that in conjunction with drought is a plain old water storage issue. The snowpack is how a significant portion of the state's water is stored.
 

vanhoskier

Angel Diva
I've mixed feelings. La Niña also means that central and Southern California receive below normal rainfall. Those areas did not even receive normal rainfall in what was supposed to be a wet El Niño season.
Eek! I was hoping southern CA would at least break even on precipitation this winter. Still a major drought, eh?

My nephew, who is in grad school at Stanford, says that CA has everything but water.
 

cornysnow

Certified Ski Diva
Plenty of saltwater... Maybe CA will have to start building desalination plants like some of the bigger Asian cities
 

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